[匯市簡評] 投資人風險偏好上揚，美元漸穩 080516

幾個最近市場重點及想法:

1.美元指數上揚後漸穩︰自從上月在三月中及四月中創下兩個71左右的底之後，穩定上揚。月線也升至季線以上，形成黃金交叉。

最近幾個經濟數字雖然並未全數轉強，房市指標還是下跌，但是下滑的數度變慢，造成投資人對美元的信心也漸漸浮現。至少以往經濟數字不好時，對美元的追殺力道不再現。



2. 股票市場波動降低︰股價慢慢向上，代表市場投資人風險愛好的VIX指數也緩緩下滑，US ViX 跌至16.3，歐洲的也是下滑。風險愛好度增加時，股市是一定受惠的，反映到匯市上來，一般以AUD 或是高利息的為標的，低利率的像是CHF 或是JPY都得注意。美元反而是相對中性受惠於此指數。



3. 信用市場漸漸放鬆︰看起來美國銀行打呆還是會繼續，但這是壞消息嗎？前幾天瑞典央行的一份報告中提到兩個重點正好可以解釋信用市場問題 一是最近想賣的券都賣的掉，債券市場從前一陣子的恐慌己經回復平穩。二是想要籌資的錢都能夠籌資。而且剛好Fed 老闆Bernanke昨天也鼓勵銀行加緊擴充資本的腳步，如此市況如同之前一樣糟糕，籌資行為還是會十分困難，但目前看來是OK的。

(Bernanke) "I strongly urge financial institutions to remain proactive in their capital-raising efforts," Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke said in a speech to the Chicago Fed Bank's annual banking conference. "Doing so not only helps the broader economy, but positions firms to take advantage of new profit opportunities as conditions in the financial markets and the economy improve," Bernanke said. Bernanke praised the efforts by banks and financial firms to raise capital to date, saying their efforts have been "impressive." But he said the new capital raised by firms hasn't
matched the losses they have suffered from subprime mortgage-backed securities and other complicated derivatives. There was little to worry about the investments that sovereign wealth funds are making in the US financial system, he said. These investments "on the whole have been very, very positive," Bernanke said.

另外幾個貨幣特別要留意，像是英鎊的疲弱幾乎已經確認，其實BOE本身並不是如此希望降息，仍然在降與不降間搖擺，但是市場似乎已經失去耐心；紐幣疲弱已經連高利息都無法支撐，經濟面都看不到好消息。
亞洲的央行在通膨和貶值拉成長中的抉擇，往往會倒向貶值那端，韓圜就是一例，我想台灣央行應該也不脫這種思考模式。