[匯市簡評] 貝老大出手，美元便回春？ 20080604

Fed 總裁貝南克(Ben Bernenke) 昨天(20080603) 給了市場一個大震憾，詳細細節請看WSJ中文報導，或是FT的報導。重點是Fed開始注意疲弱的美元所帶來的通膨效應。Fed 評論美元並不是沒有，但這通常是美國財政部的職責，由Fed成員說出口，尤其是總裁親自而為，帶給市場的影響可就有如地震般激烈。

幾點想法如下︰
(1) 當通膨和成長在左右搖擺時，身為央行性質的FED自當理所當然的要制止通膨的上揚。而且美元升值並不止是升值以抵抗進口物價這麼簡單而己，美元也影響到原物料價格，尤其是油、金。穩定的美元幣值有助原物料下跌。

(2) 強勢美元一向是美國財政部的政策，而G7會議宣言也代表了這些歐美財政及央行體系官員的期望，但是事後檢視卻發現並未成功影響市場。但若是FED和財政部站在同一邊上，則影響力更將大增，這點對市場人士是很有說服力的。6/13,14在日本有G8 財長會議，相信也會做出呼應的結論。 (G7會議記錄及當初的分析)

(3) ECB一向除了對抗通膨外，對歐元匯價很少加以評論，但是對強勢美元卻是極力呼籲，明天6/5 歐元區利率決定，市場仍然預估變動機會不大，但是記者會上對這個議題再推一把的機會也是極高。

(4) 實質動作干預？目前仍看不到情勢危急到需要直接在市場補刀，還是處於口頭打嘴泡的情形，畢竟用說的最便宜，但是否有人接連出招或是新的政策，我想可以再觀察觀察。

老大講話還是很厲害，從匯市到原物料市場全都反應，這幾天相信油、金及歐元全都承壓。至於是長期還是短期現象，可能還是需要好好觀察一下。

補充一些最近官員對美元談話︰(為MS所整理)

US Treasury Secretary Paulson June 2, 2008
"I have repeatedly stated that a strong dollar is in our nation's interest…The U.S. dollar has been the world's reserve currency since World War II and there is a good reason for that. The United States has the largest, most open economy in the world, and our capital markets are the deepest and most liquid."

Fed Governor Warsh May 21, 2008
“Oil prices are near record levels, food prices have risen rapidly, prices for a wide range of commodities are up, and dollar depreciation is among the causes pushing up import prices.”

Fed Vice Chairman Kohn
May 20, 2008
“Some of the pullback in U.S. demand has been absorbed by declines in imports, and the decline in the dollar has made U.S. firms more competitive in export markets, though it has also accentuated inflation concerns.”

Minneapolis Fed President Stern May 28, 2008
“Just because energy prices and the dollar seem to move together ... doesn't mean that there's causation there.”

Former Fed Chairman Greenspan May 20, 2008
"Over the long run, we are going to find that...the major Asian currencies, such as the yuan, will all rise relative to the dollar if for no other reason than that the differential rates in productivity are a major determinant in exchange rates… I foresee no reason why we can't have two currencies of equal size working side by side. Over the long term, it's not clear what the level of the dollar (to the euro) should be."

Chicago Fed President Evans May 12, 2008
Keeping inflation contained is "very favorable" to the US economy and the “Fed continues to monitor foreign exchange impacts on those pressures.”

Dallas Fed President Fisher Fed Minutes April 29-30, 2008
"Fisher was concerned that an adverse feedback loop was developing by which lowering the funds rate had been pushing down the exchange value of the dollar, contributing to higher commodity and import prices, cutting real spending by businesses and households, and therefore ultimately impairing economic activity."