[匯市簡評] 留意G7 會議風險—美元應會反彈 20080413 - 0414補充

在所有的報章媒體打開都是"馬上蕭胡會" "博鰲論壇"的新聞時
七大工業國的G7 Meeting 也在華盛頓展開
當然，所有的外匯交易員都摒息以待..
G7 會議有多重要..其實看這個圖就知道


此圖是取自DailyFx的文章..
聯結在下方 G7 Statement: Sharper Stance on Currencies

到寫這篇文章時，會議的結果已經出來
當然對於金融市場不穩定的憂心及挑戰是肯定的
但是在Statement中，加入了對於匯率的相關字眼如下

We reaffirm our shared interest in a strong and stable international financial system. Since our last meeting, there have been at times sharp fluctuations in major currencies, and we are concerned about their possible implications for economic and financial stability. We continue to monitor exchange markets closely, and cooperate as appropriate. We welcome China's decision to increase the flexibility of its currency, but in view of its rising current account surplus and domestic inflation, we encourage accelerated appreciation of its effective exchange rate.

這是自從04年後，首次將匯率再次放入Statement中，從二月份的會議到四月，跌最兇，最不穩定的就是USD，可以猜測這個新增的文句幾乎是針對美元。

我個人認為各國聯手干預的可能性仍然不高，但是卻是可能在預期會日漸升高的口頭干預下，引 發交易員結清目前空頭部位的可能性。已經漲多了的JPY及CHF雖然也可能被拋售，但是在金融環境仍然不安下，相對可能會影響較小，星期一的亞洲盤可以仔細觀察。 最慘的可能基本面也不支撐的英鎊，可能成為下一個市場的標靶(應該已經是了)。

G7全文聲明在此 可自行閱讀

4/14 補充
今天進公司看到記者對於官員的訪問
對於匯率方面的心得如下

US Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson
”I reiterated, in very strong terms, our commitment to a strong dollar.”
”Our long-term fundamentals are solid and they’re going to be reflected in currency values.”
”I do believe it is the view of all of the ministers sitting around the table that...we’re all better off if exchange rates reflect economic fundamentals. I don’t think any of us believe that China is ready at this time to have a market-determined exchange rate. But we do believe to have them continue to make progress.

ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet
”I personally never comment on these discussions, it’s a very touchy issue.”
Asked what people should make of the G7 forex wording, he replied that ”it’s like a poem, it speaks for itself”
Japanese Finance Minister Fukushiro Nukaga
”As for the results of the discussions at the G7, the communiqué says it all. We will not comment on remarks by individual countries, or details of the discussions.”

Italian Economy Minister Tommaso Padoa-Schioppa
”This change in the language of the G7 communiqué regarding forex shows a concern we have not seen for some years.”
”The problem in the US is that savings are too low...current disruptions in the foreign exchange market are a part of the adjustment of global imbalances.”

French Economy Minister Christine Lagarde
”The paragraph on currencies was exactly the same and had been the same since 2004 since the Boca Raton G7 meeting. So for the first time there is a change and it clearly reflects the changes that have occured on the market since the last meeting in Tokyo. But it wasn’t difficult, we all came together on that one as well.”

看來 Trichet 對此statement 十分滿意