[匯市簡評] 通膨！全球性通膨080423

金融市場在步入四月中之後，
隨著企業財報一一揭露
混沌不明的環境似乎撥開一點雲霧，
股票漸漸回穩

匯市倒是一直暗潮洶湧，
歐元終於在昨天破了1.6的心理關卡，
突破，拉回再上應該是很正常的價格反應，
但別將歐元當初破1.5後急速攻1.55的故事再套到1.6這兒來
交易員手上部位都幾近滿檔，而且選擇權部位反而較三個月前少
這都將造成追價力道的減緩
但是衝上1.62 應是可見
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全球經濟仍有隱憂，成長方面倒不見太多的問題
原先預期的美國衰退並未將其它經濟版塊拖下水
只見稍稍緩慢且穩健的成長
反而是通膨變成全球性的議題
上週公布的歐元區通膨達3.6% ，讓ECB坐立難安
降息預期變成升息預期
Noyar 在0422 的WSJ有提到
Earlier Tuesday, Christian Noyer, France’s central banker, told French radio network RTL, “Our big problem is to ensure that inflation returns below 2% next year. We will do whatever is necessary for that. If needed, we will move interest rates.” That comment, along with other hawkish-sounding words from other ECB policy-makers, helped spark speculation the ECB’s next move might be to raise interest rates to tame euro-zone inflation.

But in a Wall Street Journal interview later Tuesday, Mr. Noyer said markets had overinterpreted his remarks as a hint about the direction in which rates might move. “Movements can go both ways,” he said. “I would never engage in a discussion about the future path of interest rates, simply because nobody knows. It would be dangerous to make predictions in either direction.”

The both ways 其實就夠讓市場震驚了。今天早上(0423) 澳洲的CPI也達到4.2%，再度超越市場預期，也讓澳幣再度上揚，突破0.95。

回到美國，通膨的浪潮似乎也該提醒一下FOMC的官員降息的腳步是否讓繼續下去？
原先設想中的經濟疲軟引發需求減緩來舒緩通膨的故事似乎並未發生，
降息對於信用的重建也還看不到效益，反而是增加通膨壓力
若是這種思維在Fed中受到重視及討論，甚至暗指降息循環停止
那美元的低點就不遠了~
不過那也要等月底開完會之後才知分曉
目前市場上叫牌的還是ECB
歐元還是老大

補充一下WSJ對Fed 官員Fisher 的訪談記錄

Most FOMC members believe slower growth will address the inflation problem. Why don’t you?

It’s a question, first of all, of whose slower growth. If it’s just U.S. slower growth, I don’t believe that’s the answer because a lot of labor and tasks are priced globally. One of the arguments is there’s worker insecurity, in a globally competitive marketplace; therefore labor will be more restrained.

Will the U.S. slowing down really damp the price of oil, or the price of food, rice, or flour, cornmeal, the price of steel? … It’s not clear to me that a mild slowdown will put a dent in price pressures domestically. Obviously if you have a tail risk of a very severe global slowdown, then yes, I can see that. I don’t see that in the cards at least from my limited perspective. If you think in closed-economy terms, that’s more likely to obtain. If you think in global terms, it is less likely to obtain unless the whole world slows down.

Fisher之前兩次FOMC會議就都投on hold，態度是一致的。後續會觀察此想法是否會開始蔓延。