[金融要聞]WSJ文章 U.S. Banks Near A Plan to Freeze Subprime Rates 20071130

這新聞很重要

先留下來備份

如果有機會通過的話 將是用很極端的手法干預金融市場



U.S.</country-region></place> Banks Near A Plan to Freeze Subprime Rates

 By DEBORAH SOLOMON and MICHAEL M. PHILLIPS November 30, 2007



The Bush administration and major financial institutions are close to agreeing on a plan that would temporarily freeze interest rates on certain troubled subprime home loans, according to people familiar with the matter. 



With more than two million home loans expected to reset to higher rates, such a move could help people stay in their homes and provide confidence to investors anxious about the spiraling mortgage problem and a possible recession. It would represent the biggest public commitment yet by the administration, which has begun to take some heat over the lack of major initiatives. 



The plan is being negotiated between regulators including the Treasury Department and a coalition of mortgage-related companies including Citigroup Inc., Wells Fargo & Co., Washington Mutual Inc. and Countrywide Financial Corp.



People familiar with the talks say the individual members have agreed to follow any agreement reached by the coalition, which is called the Hope Now Alliance.



Details of the plan, which could be announced as early as next week, are still being worked out. In general, the government and the coalition have largely agreed to extend the lower introductory rate on home loans for certain borrowers who will have trouble making payments once their mortgages increase. 



Many subprime loans carry a low "teaser" interest rate for the first two or three years, then reset to a higher rate for the remainder of the term, which is typically 30 years in total. Such loans are sometimes called 2-28 or 3-27 loans. In a typical case, the rate would rise to around 9.5% to 11% from 7% or 8%. That would boost an average borrower's payment by several hundred dollars a month. 



Exactly which borrowers will qualify for the freeze and how long the freeze would last are yet to be determined. Under one scenario, the freeze could run as long as seven years. The parties are developing standard criteria that would determine eligibility. The criteria should be finalized by the end of year. 



Mortgage servicers -- the companies that collect loan payments -- are a key part of the coalition, because they are the companies that deal directly with borrowers. Often the servicer is different from the company that originally made the loan. Citigroup and Countrywide are among the nation's biggest mortgage servicers. The mortgage servicers in the coalition represent 84% of the overall subprime market. The coalition also includes lenders, investors and mortgage counselors. 



The Bush administration has been looking for ways to stem the fallout from the mortgage crisis. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson and Housing and Urban Development Secretary Alphonso Jackson helped assemble the coalition so that government officials could have a single counterpart with which to discuss terms of a plan.



While the government can't force the industry to modify loans, Mr. Paulson and other administration officials have been using moral suasion to push for workouts, telling the companies it is in their interest to avoid foreclosure since most parties can lose money when that happens. A similar plan to freeze interest rates temporarily was recently announced by California Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger and four major loan servicers, including Countrywide.



Among the holdouts have been investors, who typically hold securities backed by mortgages. If interest rates are frozen, they would lose the potential benefit of higher payments. But investors have cautiously moved toward cooperation, likely on the grounds that it's better to get some interest than none at all.



At a meeting in <state w:st="on"> <place w:st="on">Washington</place> </state> yesterday, coalition members told Mr. Paulson and other regulators that they are on track to announce by year's end new industry guidelines for restructuring troubled mortgages. Among those attending were representatives of Wells Fargo, Washington Mutual, Citigroup and the American Securitization Forum, a group whose members issue, buy and rate securities backed by bundles of mortgages.



"There has been a convergence of thought on this," said William Ruberry, spokesman for the Office of Thrift Supervision, which is also involved in the discussions.



A spokeswoman for the American Securitization Forum, which earlier resisted a broad approach to changing loan terms, said: "We support loan modifications in appropriate circumstances and are working to establish systematic procedures to facilitate their delivery.



"Treasury officials say financial institutions are likely to set criteria that divide up subprime borrowers into three groups: those who can continue to make their payments even if rates rise, those who can't afford their mortgages even if rates stay steady, and those who could keep their homes if the maturity date of their mortgages were extended or the interest rates remained at the teaser rates. Only the third group would be eligible for help.



The creditors are likely to look at whether the borrowers have equity in their homes, despite falling house prices, and whether their incomes are holding steady.



Mr. Paulson, who is philosophically opposed to federal meddling in markets, at first rejected a sweeping approach to loan modifications when the idea was floated by Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. Chairwoman Sheila Bair. But he shifted his position recently. He told The Wall Street Journal last week that it would be impossible to "process the number of workouts and modifications that are going to be necessary doing it just sort of one-off."



As a drumbeat of bad news about housing has continued -- including news of fewer home sales, falling prices and higher foreclosures -- the Bush administration has come under pressure to be seen as actively addressing the problem.



"There seems to be a vacuum in terms of leadership," said Brian Bethune,economist at Global Insight, a research firm. Mr. Paulson and Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke need "to build up the public's confidence that they will do what is necessary to avoid recession," said Mr. Bethune.



Mr. Paulson, who spent 32 years at Goldman Sachs Group Inc., has been on the phone nearly every day in recent months with the heads of financial institutions such as J.P. Morgan Chase & Co., Bank of America Corp. and Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. He has talked to chief executives to find out what they're doing to help borrowers and get their take on the extent of the losses and accompanying credit crunch roiling Wall Street.



"Where I'm spending most of my time is in the mortgage market," Mr. Paulson said in another interview this week. He convened a 7 a.m. staff meeting the Monday after Thanksgiving "to find out what are we learning."



"If I ever saw a role for government, it is...to bring the private sector together when innovation has really outrun our ability to deal with it," Mr.Paulson said. He is expected to talk about the administration's approach to the housing crisis at a conference Monday.Interest rates are set to reset next year on $362 billion worth of adjustable-rate subprime mortgages, according to Banc of America Securities. Another $85 billion in such mortgages is resetting during the current quarter.



The estimates include loans packaged into securities and held in bank portfolios.Borrowers whose loans are resetting are likely to have a tougher time sidestepping the rising payments by refinancing or selling their homes. Lending standards have tightened and many borrowers can't qualify for refinancing. And falling home prices mean that many borrowers have little or no equity in their homes. Some owe more than their homes are worth. 



Top Treasury officials fear that unless creditors agree to relax the terms on many of those mortgages, borrowers will default at a pace that outstrips the 10% foreclosure rate on subprime loans during the last months of this year.

[每日摘要]20071130

大致的態勢跟之前想法一致

美元因為跌深及空頭太多的關係

一有較為重要的事件

很容易引起一番TP的賣壓



但是要說是因為金融市場開始穩定或是股票回升

使得風險愛好上升

我覺得是BS 

風險愛好度最重要的觀察還是會選澳幣

澳幣一連數日都在原地不動

還看不出風險方面的轉換



整體市場風險還是偏向美元

利率市場越來越緊

若是到了大家有美元不願貸放的程度

那反彈肯定就將延長



今天瑞士的數字還不錯  瑞士十二月應該會升息

CH CPY yoy exp 1.4% Act 1.8% Pre 1.3%

CH GDP yoy exp 2.6% Act 2.9% Pre 2.8%

[每日摘要]20071128

美元絕地大反攻？



昨天才提到對喊漲卻不漲的歐元感到遲疑

今日他就跌給你看，

特里謝帶著大批人馬去中國看來有些進展

下午三點左右，美元兌 歐元 英鎊 及瑞朗 幾乎完全翻盤

連帶著USD/JPY 也重回到109 價位

目前看不到歐洲政府進場干預的味道

但是後續的效應倒是值得觀察。



溫家寶說要讓人民幣更具彈性，及將更多由市場決定

如果真的做到的話，那就必須升值更加加速

但是要改善EUR/CNY的過度升值

那overvalue的歐元必須要先修正才行

也就是問題終將回到美元本身

要立刻修正美元的超賣  短期內是有難度的

金融市場應該是會慢慢穩定

房市反正已經爛到谷底 要有再爛的數字好像也很難

所以接下來就是慢慢恢復信心的時間問題了



台幣今天一反連日升值的狀態，

終於以貶值作收

但不是央行就此放手  在最後這樣子的市場狀態下

最後收貶但只是小貶也還在老大哥可以接受的範圍內

不需要太過作文章...



聽到中國賣了很多EUR/USD 

難道是政策配合賣的嗎？

先打上一個大大的問號吧



==================================================

News



    BEIJING, Nov 28 (Reuters) - Following are highlights of

comments made by Eurogroup Chairman Jean-Claude Juncker, European

Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet and European Monetary

Affairs Commissioner Joaquin Almunia in Beijing on Wednesday.

   They were speaking at a news conference after two days of

talks with senior Chinese government and central bank officials

on exchange rates and trade issues.

   

   (* denotes new comments)

   

   EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK PRESIDENT JEAN-CLAUDE TRICHET:

   The ECB and the People's Bank of China will immediately set

up a working group on currency issues.

   He said the EU appreciated Beijing's resolute drive towards

making the economy driven more "by modern themes" and to have

domestic consumption more as a driver of growth.

   "We would certainly think that as part of the overall

orientations that have been taken, part of it would be

accelerating the appreciation of the currency in particular

against the euro. It would be good both for the Chinese interests

and sustainable global prosperity."

   "We fully respect the sovereign decisions of the Chinese

authority."

   "We heard this idea that going in the direction that we are

suggesting would perhaps be the attitude of the Chinese

authorities, but I wouldn't say anything more on that."

   "We were told that this was something which would be

examined."

   

   EUROGROUP CHAIRMAN JEAN-CLAUDE JUNCKER:

   "We didn't come to China with immediate expectations."

    

   On trade:

   "Our main concern is the persistence of the global

imbalances."

   Because China is the EU's top trade partner, the fact that

the yuan is depreciating against the euro and rising against the

dollar is a problem and could lead to protectionist tensions in

Europe.

   "We have to correct this obvious imbalance."

   

   On currencies:

 *  "We do share with our Chinese friends a common diagnosis

that the Chinese currency should appreciate in a gradual but

sped-up way."

 * "We agreed to have a continual dialogue between China and the

euro area in the next coming period."

   

   EUROPEAN MONETARY AFFAIRS COMMISSIONER JOAQUIN ALMUNIA:

He said China needs "to introduce more flexibility in the

exchange rate of the yuan".

   Beijing should not focus only on the relationship between the

yuan and the dollar. "They have promised us to think about these

divergences of the exchange rate." 







17:27 28Nov07 RTRS-中國將繼續逐步改善人民幣匯率機制--總理溫家寶

17:30 28Nov07 RTRS-中國總理溫家寶稱人民幣匯率將更多地由市場力量決定

17:32 28Nov07 RTRS-中國將令人民幣匯率波幅更具彈性,以著眼于資本項目可兌換--總理溫家寶

17:48 28Nov07 RTRS-〔人民幣匯率〕匯率將更多由市場力量決定,波幅更具彈性--中國總理

 --翻譯 曾祥進; 審校 張喜良 





17:54 28Nov07 RTRS-〔瑞士利率〕央行不會機械地對通膨預期做出反應--央行總裁何斯

  路透瑞士弗裡堡11月28日電---瑞士央行總裁何斯(Jean-Pierre Roth)周三表示,央行不會機械地對通膨預期做出反應,董事會的判斷對其利率決定起著重要作用.

 瑞士央行官員暗示,央行在做出利率決定之前仍需觀望,因信貸危機令經濟增長面臨的風險,以及油價上漲和瑞郎走軟對物價穩定的威脅,令其左右為難.

 何斯說,瑞郎在央行的利率決策過程中曾被視為可能影響通膨的因素之一.

 "在做出利率決策時,央行不會瞄準匯率,無論以明確或隱含的方式,"何斯說.

 不過他也表示,瑞郎的走勢是給央行通膨預期帶來不確定性的一個重要因素.(完)

 欲瀏覽瑞士利率的相關報導,請點選[INT-CMN-CH]

 --翻譯 烏雲高娃;審校 徐文焰 





08:12 28Nov07 RTRS-〔英國利率〕央行委員森坦斯稱形勢複雜,決定貨幣政策並不容易

  路透倫敦11月27日電---英國央行貨幣政策委員會(MPC)委員森坦斯周二表示,該央行不得不同時考量通膨壓力上升的影響,以及金融市場動蕩導致經濟放緩的可能性. 

  森坦斯是貨幣政策委員會中對抗通膨立場更強硬的委員之一.他稱對油價高漲的憂慮較去年初更甚,部分因為其他初級商品及食品價格亦大漲. 

  但同時還要兼顧金融市場的持續動蕩,因後者加之過去一年中的五次升息,可能打壓經濟成長. 

  他稱,貨幣政策委員會將密切關注經濟數據,但沒有暗示最快下周就降息.多數分析師預計明年初將降息. 

  森坦斯稱,"要判斷出恰當的貨幣政策反應並不容易." 

  他稱,貨幣政策委員會將密切關注"金融市場及信貸狀況對全球其他主要經濟體,尤其是對歐美的影響." 

  森坦斯注意到近幾年油價的動蕩走勢,但稱最近這輪升向每桶100美元的走勢,可能更成問題. 

  他稱,"對於油價進一步動蕩的影響,我們可能不那麼樂觀了,動蕩情況本身已經更加嚴峻.另外,我們不僅看到油價急劇上漲,且初級商品價格面臨更為普遍的上檔壓力...並且近期食品價格大幅上漲."

  森坦斯預計房價漲幅將進一步放緩,因各銀行已抑制風險較高的貸款,但他指出,目前預計房價徹底下跌還為時尚早.(完) 



  --翻譯 于春紅;審校 朱淑珍 

[金融要聞]路透專欄—英國房貸分析

個人觀察備份用



12:33 26Nov07 -《SAFT專欄》英國房貸收緊之際,房地產市場搖搖欲墜

  (James Saft是路透專欄撰稿人,以下專欄只代表本人觀點)

 撰稿 James Saft

 路透倫敦11月23日電---要在英國申請到貸款購房,尤其是用作投資,如今是難得多了.這種情形不僅預示著高昂的房地產市場將要面臨麻煩,而且整個金融市場和經濟都可能受到牽累.

 周五英國銀行業者協會(BBA)發布的數據顯示,10月房屋抵押貸款批準數量降至紀錄低點,分別較上年同期和9月下滑37%和18%.

 幾家知名的放款機構也已減少發放高風險貸款,尤其是對買房出租(buy-to-let)者的放貸.

 什麼原因促成這種局面?與Northern Rock<NRK.L>倒台的原因如出一轍:次優抵押貸款業重挫之後,投資者已經無甚興趣購買抵押貸款支持證券,無論評級有多高或是結構有多簡單.

 據英國抵押貸款協會,2006年英國住房貸款發放額達到3,450億英鎊.雷曼兄弟估計,證券化的房貸總額有1,370億英鎊,幾乎占到40%.

 但據Unicredit數據,自從8月初以來大約僅有70億英鎊的抵押貸款被證券化,滑坡頗為驚人.

 Global Insight分析師阿徹指出:"如果放款渠道逐漸枯竭,那麼這種情況持續時間越長,(房價)急劇回調的風險就越大."

 "許多人只是剛剛開始注意到,這種情形持續的時間可能比短短幾周前所料想的要長."

 過去10年間,英國房價漲了兩倍以上,一個與美國截然不同的原因是新樓供應確實吃緊,另一些原因則是貸款很容易申請到,而且民眾普遍認為房價只會漲不會跌.經通膨調整,房價在這段時期上漲了2.5倍.

 在火熱的房地產市場推動下,英國家庭的總負債較稅後收入比率在第二季達到159%,甚至高於美國.

 許多分析師認為,倘若房價下跌,甚至只是左右擺動,那麼消費者支出將失去一大動力,本已是處境艱難的金融服務業也是要雪上加霜.

 全英房屋抵押貸款協會近來預測,到2008年11月時,房價年增率將從目前的9.7%降至零.[ID:nCN0236189]而抵押貸款機構Halifax的數據顯示,上兩個月中,每個月房價跌幅都在0.5%左右.

     **買房出租領域或為關鍵**

 向買房出租者的放款尤其受到打擊.被迫向英國政府尋求資金的Northern Rock就是這一領域的重要放款機構.

 另一家同類機構Paragon<PARA.L>本月稍早也表示,可能不堪全球信貸緊縮壓力而崩潰,在截至3月份的六個月間放款額可能減半.Paragon提供的貸款約占買房出租貸款總額約占十分之一,所以若其大為縮減放貸甚至退出該業務,影響是不言而喻的.

 而即使能夠獲得房貸,投資也難以帶來收益.

 由於之前房價漲得太快,租金收入通常不能抵消新近購房者的貸款成本.這就意味著,投資者或者要支出比較高的首付,或者要每月拿出額外的錢,才能彌補租金收入的不足.

 根據英國皇家測量師學會的報告顯示,在目前的情況下,買房出租市場的門檻是65,600英鎊(房產總價值的30%)的平均首付.

 牛市行情中買房出租或許是明智的,但如果房價左右擺動或是下降,後果會是慘痛的.

 明年春季英國資本利得稅的調整措施生效,屆時買房出租者可能因此開始拋售房產.對於那些持有房產時間已有數年的高收入投資者而言,有效稅率將從24%降至18%.

 蘇格蘭皇家銀行英國分析師沃克認為,房地產價格"在未來幾年間的增長可以忽略不計",在某些地區甚至下降.

 不過他認為,除非就業遭受打擊,否則房價不大可能急劇下跌,對於經濟的影響也會較小.

 這是個正面訊息,以往情況也能提供證據.

 但是,如果抵押貸款證券化市場不能及時重新開放,為通常的春季購房旺季提供資金,房價則難以維持穩定.

 而且,以美國的經歷作為借鑒,很難想像一個漲勢洶洶的資產市場能夠溫和著陸.(完)

 --翻譯 吳婧;審校 朱淑珍

[每日摘要]20071127

股市的重挫讓投資人再度重新檢視風險性資產，

商品貨幣無可避免又成為最主要打壓的對象

但是澳幣跌到0.87兌一美元就快跌不下去了

似乎短線上再繼續賣這些風險性資產的誘因較低。



歐元也是，怎麼想都是該買歐元的盤，

趨勢如此，新聞如此，連一堆分析師的報告都是同步看衰美元看多歐元，

怎麼他就漲不上去，

還是小心為妙，



盤中最重要的新聞就屬花旗銀行的新聞了摘錄原文放在下方 中文細節

這個新聞造成JPY cross 上揚 

股市反彈，但是油元真的能夠救疲弱的金融市場嗎？

我個人是比較抱持懷疑的態度

畢竟花旗本來就算是半個阿拉伯銀行，

和其它的金融機構不可相提並論。



德國IFO是今天最重要的數字

不可思議的是竟然好轉

算是跌破市場眼鏡之一

IFO對歐元一向都有正相關的關聯性

但是在逼近新高的歐元能夠帶來多少助力？

IFO (Nov) pre 103.9 exp 103.3 Act. 104.2







============================================================

NEWS



bu Dhabi Invests $7.5 Billion in Citigroup

By ROBIN SIDEL

November 26, 2007 9:34 p.m.



Citigroup Inc., seeking to restore investor confidence amid massive losses due in credit markets and a lack of permanent leadership, is receiving a $7.5 billion cash infusion from the investment arm of the Abu Dhabi government, according to people familiar with the situation.



The investment by the Abu Dhabi Investment Authority will help rebuild Citigroup's capital levels, which have been eroded by a credit crunch that began in August. Citigroup Chief Executive Officer and Chairman Charles Prince resigned earlier this month after the bank, which had already written off billions of dollars, was facing as much as $11 billion more in losses.



Write to Robin Sidel at robin.sidel@wsj.com 





    TOKYO, Nov 27 (Reuters) - Japanese Finance Minister Fukushiro

Nukaga told European Central Bank governing council member

Christian Noyer that he shared the U.S. view that a strong dollar

was desirable, a Japanese Ministry of Finance official said on

Tuesday.

   Nukaga also told Noyer that there needed to be more

flexibility in China's yuan exchange rate, said the official, who

was present at the meeting.

   The official said Nukaga and Noyer did not specifically

discuss the movement of the euro in foreign exchange markets.

(Reporting by Leika Kihara) 



16:32 27Nov07 RTRS-JAPAN GOVT DOWNGRADES VIEW ON EMPLOYMENT, FIRST DOWNWARD REVISION IN MORE THAN 3 YRS

16:32 27Nov07 RTRS-JAPAN GOVT REPORT SAYS IMPROVEMENT IN JOB CONDITIONS PAUSING RECENTLY

16:32 27Nov07 RTRS-JAPAN GOVT UPGRADES VIEW ON EXPORTS, SAYING THEY ARE INCREASING

16:32 27Nov07 RTRS-JAPAN GOVT REPORT MAINTAINS VIEW THAT ECONOMY RECOVERING DESPITE SOME WEAKNESS

16:34 27Nov07 RTRS-Japan govt downgrades view on employment in report

    By Leika Kihara

   TOKYO, Nov 27 (Reuters) - The Japanese government downgraded

its view on employment conditions in a monthly report on Tuesday,

the first downward revision in more than three years, but kept

its assessment of the overall economy unchanged.

   In a sign of rising concern over fallout from problems in the

U.S. subprime mortgage market, the government also said financial

market fluctuations ensuing from the subprime issue need to be

closely monitored in gauging the outlook for Japan's economy.

   "Improvement in employment conditions appears to be pausing

recently, while some severe aspects remain," the government said

in its monthly report for November.

   The downgrade from October's report, which described job

conditions as improving steadily, was the first since September

2004. It came after Japan's jobless rate rose in September for

the second straight month.

   The government kept its overall assessment unchanged, saying

the economy is recovering albeit some weaknesses.

   Exports are increasing, the government said, upgrading its

view from the previous month on firm overseas demand for Japanese

automobiles, construction machinery and electric equipment. The

October report had said exports were increasing moderately.

   Corporate profits are improving and capital expenditure is

increasing as a trend, while personal consumption is largely

flat, the report said, sticking to the previous month's view.

   Japan's economy grew a stronger-than-expected 0.6 percent in

July-September from the previous quarter on firm exports and

capital spending, following a 0.4 percent fall in April-June.

   

   SMALL FIRMS FEELING PINCH

   Japan's jobless rate unexpectedly jumped to 4.0 percent in

September from 3.8 percent in August after touching a nine-year

low of 3.6 percent in July, suggesting that improvement in

employment conditions may have come to a halt.

   The government will release the jobless rate for October on

Friday. Economists' median forecast at 4.0 percent.

   Smaller firms may not be hiring as much as before since their

profits are being squeezed by rising crude oil and raw material

costs, said Fumihira Nishizaki, director of macroeconomic

analysis at the Cabinet Office.

   "Small firms' business sentiment is worsening and their bonus

payments are declining as a trend," he said.

   Tame wage growth has been partly behind a lack of strength in

personal consumption, which makes up 55 percent of Japan's gross

domestic product.

   On the outlook, the report maintained its view that Japan's

economy is expected to continue recovering. But it warned that

fluctuations in financial markets, mainly caused by the subprime

problem, and crude oil price moves warrant close monitoring.

   "We wanted to emphasise the need to watch currency and stock

market movements and how they could potentially affect Japan's

economy," said Nishizaki at the Cabinet Office.

   In the previous month's report, the government used broader

terms in describing risks, saying it needed to watch developments

in the U.S. economy and crude oil prices. 

 

[匯市簡評] 簡單看一下韓國此波作帳行情 20071126

很多人到年底時，都期望來個作帳行情，

來個股匯雙漲，口袋飽飽的過年。

今年的韓國換匯市場倒是有一點不一樣。



最近市場動盪最大的就屬韓國的換匯市場了

原本應該很穩定的利差市場突然間大幅崩盤(如下圖)

很多人搞不清楚原因，我那時也是東問西問，

後來才搞清楚整體的資金流向來源。









先從什麼是換匯市場說起好了，簡單的說就是雙方先在近端交換貨幣，並約定未來再用某一個匯率換回來，

兩個匯率用的是利率來做基本計算。很饒口吧‥

用個更簡單的說法，手上握有一億美元的基金公司想投資韓國，不管是股或債

想要擔利率風險的，就直接匯入，很簡單，今年一整年應該哈哈笑

不想擔利率風險的，就找一家韓國銀行，把美金借給它，再跟它借等值韓圜，

兩邊的本利和再計算出該換回來的匯率。

這種做法當然有好處，可以享受美元利率又可以享受想投資國家的資本利得。



從去年一整年到今年上半年，這種玩法源源不絕的流入韓國，

不止是股市，流入最多的是債市，

以韓國最流通的3年期債券都一直在5%以上，相較於美債的低迷，

的確是很大的誘因，

但是從年中開始，一連串的避險基金虧損，

信用市場大規模的緊縮，

連帶使得即使是像韓國這種四小龍等級的國家債券都被放大檢視

信用有風險嗎？應該是沒有

但是放在帳上就是容易被風控部門檢討

年底又到，很多投資銀行就開始調整明年的Balance sheet，

這個調整的壓力從十一月初就開始......(一些美國的投資銀行像Morgan stanley 及 Goldman 都是以十一月底為會計年度)

連帶造成 1. 股債大賣 再把原來的換匯交易解約，最近的一串全球大跌中，韓股是被外資提款提最兇的國家

(上圖︰債券大賣 使殖利率大幅上揚  下圖︰股價大跌)









這筆賣出來的錢再將原來換匯交易解約，一瞬間大筆大筆的韓圜現金全都流回韓國銀行手上，

再從這些銀行手中提中大筆美元，

造成貨幣市場利率大跌，跌到什麼地步？

韓國目前官方利率是5%  但是換匯市場隱含出來的韓元一個月利率已經趨近於0

這表示市場利率比日元還低！

比日元還低耶~天啊

這把許多原本做亞洲利差交易的交易者掃地出場  

(比如說 借日元 買韓圜 或是借台幣 買韓圜)

還有韓國的出口商避險也避不下去 太貴了

一個要出 一個不進 

就造成了 在幾個交易日內 韓圜從900-->貶到930 貶值超過3%的結果

如下圖︰









這筆流量結束了沒，短期內看起來是差不多了，至少第一波的會計帳行情已經接近尾聲，

十二月份為結帳日的也必定有一部份都這一波掃出場，

下個月應該不會這麼恐怖才是。

至於台灣會不會像這麼大幅波動的行情及瘋狂呢？

小弟是覺得不至於~

因為台灣的債市外人玩者不多

市場胃納量也較淺，

最重要的是央行怎麼可能任你興風作浪~

但是沒事研究一下市場流向及故事也算是蠻有趣的吧！



==============================================



另外，韓國政府最近規定將銀行向外借款的免稅額度大減

也是促成這些行情的推手之一

所有的資金流向都和上述一致

不再多述

==============================================

[經濟分析] The world in 2008

經濟學人雜誌公布了他們的經濟預測水晶球"The World in 2008"

網路上幾乎可以看到全文~

相信有些主題是大家感興趣的

英文能力比較好的朋友可以一看

連結在此 

The world in 2008

[每日摘要]20071126

股市從星期五晚上開始大漲~

匯市倒是沒有想像中的波動大，一切都在30~50點左右波動！

歐洲貨幣如此，商品貨幣也是！

看起來已經進入恐怖平衡中，市場的眼光倒是會開始轉至一些實質面的數字~

正好本週也是經濟數字大週

尤其是美國的數字從Core PCE, GDP , exiting home sales(成屋銷售) New home sales (新屋銷售) 等

詳情及市場預估值請看之前提過的Froexfactory 

這些數字當然目前都是看衰的居多，所以在公布前美元應該還是處於弱勢

公布後就不一定了，外匯市場最常說的是 Buy the rumor , sell at factor. 

歐元還是有機會測試1.5，

當然財政官員的雜音還是會出現，誰勝誰敗猶待觀察。



之前提到利率市場的緊俏不只出現在英國，歐元的貨幣市場利率也開始上揚

金融市場的緊張還沒有解除，過去一週內 3M eur libor 上升10 bps GBP libor 上升20bps

都不是正常現象。

不過這點我對ECB比有信心，至少他們在8月中那一段的表現算是果決又明快。



台幣還是維持每天升值一點點的情形，

整體的趨勢倒是不變，朝著正確的路走倒是沒錯，

這點看法沒有改變。

[每日摘要]20071123

以為很平靜 結果........



晨報時，很多人都以為今天會是個十分平淡的一天，感恩節後加上日本的假日，應該是個輕鬆的一天才是。但是很多事情最後並非是事前想得這麼簡單。

很多時候，行情都在最鬆懈時候來臨，市場最清淡容易推動是個原因 ，技術分析和選擇權的廣泛在外匯上利用也絕對是個幕後推手。這幾年常常可以看到這種例子，尤其是聖誔節這種全世界狂歡的日子，竟然往往都是狂昇狂跌的日子。



還是從歐洲三兄弟開始一段刺激的行程，Usd/Chf 在 1.1 的選擇權價觸級後，升！連帶著歐元和英鎊也是，歐元盤中創下1.4950新高，瑞朗 1.0890也突破。看來美元是笈笈可危，但之前有提到歐元在越高點，政治及財政壓力將蜂擁而至，所以交易員將格外提高警覺。所以當ECB's Ordonez認為歐元區經濟將衰退的比預期來得快，此話一出，引發大量停損，當然還有其它評論值得玩味，但是要讓市場反轉，這一句話就夠了。



英國的貨幣市場利率還是有緊俏，而且這兩天有加緊上揚的感覺，是不是還有什麼金融機構在急著從市場上抓錢，值得後續觀察。



沒有把日元的圖附上，不過大致上是相同的走勢，只是日元同時還帶著unwind carry trade的角色在，目前金融市場還沒有走入穩定，反彈就不如歐洲三兄弟大囉。



下圖由左至右 依序是歐元 英鎊 瑞朗(瑞朗向下即代表升值~倒過來看 走勢都是一樣。









==========



News



Lomax 是BOE中屬於較鴿派的一員，但上次利率決定，意外的投下onhold，但是今天的言論讓大家認為他下次會投Cut rate



BOE's Lomax,

* MPC faces tough period regarding rate decisions

* Oil prices key in decision to keep rates at 5.75%

* Oil prices seen rising even higher

* Monetary policy may be on the restrictive side, impact of financial

turmoil hard to call

* Further tightening of credit conditions expected

* Consumer spending, investment seen slowing

* UK economic growth seen slowing, inflation could rise

* Ther are always risks in signalling policy ease when energy prices

rising

* Risk turmoil will spill over into asset, property markets and hurt

confidence

* MPC faces trickey period balancing risk of sharp slowdown vs

inflation

* We shoudl respond quickly to economic conditions, but still unclear

how much economy will slo



Numerous financial institutions have increased their calls for cuts by

the BOE in 2008. Comments such as these by Lomax will only compounde

these expectati



歐元1.50相信會是歐洲財政官員及出口商的容忍臨界點，雖然實質進場干預的機率還是不大，畢竟日元最近也有跟著升值，立足點就沒那麼穩。但是相信在逼人民幣加速升值未果下，回頭推美元回升的話題應該將開始在市場上流傳。



17:14 23Nov07 RTRS-ECB'S ORDONEZ SAYS ECB READY TO ACT TO PREVENT SECOND ROUND INFLATION RISKS

17:17 23Nov07 RTRS-ECB'S ORDONEZ SAYS DISORDERLY CURRENCY ADJUSTMENTS NEGATIVE

17:19 23Nov07 RTRS-RPT-ECB'S ORDONEZ SAYS SHARP FALL IN DOLLAR NOT POSITIVE FOR U.S. ECONOMY

17:21 23Nov07 RTRS-ORDONEZ SAYS ECB HAS INSUFFICIENT DATA TO SAY IF INFLATION EXPECTATIONS UNANCHORED FROM TARGET

17:42 23Nov07 RTRS-ECB's Ordonez says abrupt dollar fall bad for US



18:17 23Nov07 RTRS-ECB'S TRICHET SAYS NOTES US AUTHORITIES HAVE SAID STRONG DOLLAR IN US INTERESTS

18:17 23Nov07 RTRS-TRICHET SAYS NOTES JAPANESE AUTHORITIES SAY FX SHOULD REFLECT FUNDAMENTALS

18:18 23Nov07 RTRS-TRICHET SAYS MARKETS SHOULD RECOGNISE IMPROVED STRENGTH OF JAPANESE ECONOMY

18:19 23Nov07 RTRS-ECB'S TRICHET SAYS DOES NOT WELCOME BRUTAL CURRENCY MOVEMENTS

18:19 23Nov07 RTRS-TRICHET SAYS STICKS TO G7 STATEMENT ON CURRENCIES

   

[每日摘要]20071122

趨勢開始走緩 但仍暗潮洶湧



平心而論，今天是較為平靜的一天，在接連數天的創新高之後，稍微休息一下也是很正常的事。EUR 持平於1.4850 ，英鎊也在 2.0650左右。日幣108.5-109 仍然維持著強勢，CHF 還在走創新高之路 1.10 要突破也只是時間點的問題吧。澳幣還是承壓 美元也是。韓圜更是弱到不行，不過韓圜另有故事，這個改日再提。



目前貨幣分成兩個集團，一個是走美元弱勢，以歐元帶頭，還有英鎊及瑞朗。這個集團漲很多，但是我對後勢較保守。另一個是Risk unwind，澳幣，紐、加幣都屬之，雖然油價還在走，但是這幾個貨幣可謂跌跌不休，後勢還是看弱。而日元也趁這個勢重起一段漲幅，日元瘋瘋的，股市沒起來的升值覺得很沒安全感。



英鎊在昨天公布他的會議紀錄後，上方壓力更顯沉重，雖然兌美元並未下跌太多，但是EUR/GBP還是站上四年來高點(見下圖)。Minutes 投票人數7-2 是還算符合預期，內容看起來也四平八穩，並沒有太多一定會降息的看法。雖然對於Gieve轉投降息陣營有疑慮，但是我還是認為十二月份英國會降息的機率還是很低，但是後續還是會Cut, 英鎊個人來看還是保守以對比較好。BOE minutes 全文  





台幣最後一盤由貶轉升，想也知道是CBC做的，升值還是目前政策下結果，股市無法控制，但是匯市絕對不能鬆手，目標還是先看之前提到的 32.25。

台灣Q3 GDP YOY成長 6.92% 己經是暴走狀態，這數字怎麼出來的，很令人懷疑，多觀察一陣子比較好。



News 



14:50 22Nov07 RTRS-SINGAPORE - EU'S BARROSO SAYS VERY STRONG EURO BECOMING A CONCERN

    SINGAPORE, Nov 22 (Reuters) - The European Union's president

said on Thursday the strength of the euro, at a record high

versus the dollar, is a problem for the region's exporters.

   The euro is "becoming a concern" in some export sectors in

some European countries, Jose Manuel Barroso told Reuters on the

sidelines of an EU summit with Southeast Asian nations in

Singapore.

(Reporting by Koh Gui Qing and Jan Dahinten) 







   

[每日摘要]20071121

Another volidite day~



今日主角回到亞洲，首選日元。USD/JPY 110穿過後加足馬力直衝109, 低點在108.90，狂升！但是韓圜從922到929 狂貶。歐洲貨幣白天盤相對穩定，但在London進來後，紛紛下跌，近期仍然在大範圍區間內波動不變。



Equity 倒是有志一同，TWII drop 2.27% , N225 drop 2.46% KS11 drop 3.49%. HSI 更慘 -4.15% 又是千點。



金融市場還未穩定，雖然不見得是最壞的情勢，但是餘波仍然盪漾。加上時至年底，許多IB面臨關帳的時節，手上還握有風險性資產的，就是想清掉而已。歐元在1.48以上基本上漲幅已經滿足第五波該有的走勢，剩下的就是看市場對歐元多有信心了。個人覺得肯再加碼追的人很少，回檔修正難免。

台幣央行還是關注。波動應不大。但是升值方向應該不變。和股市一樣~升值就是阻止資金外流最快最有效的方法。



ECB官員最近會去China，說些什麼還蠻令人好奇的，但是如果想逼人民幣升值，我想可能會失望。





News 

   LONDON, Nov 21 (Reuters) - Bank of England deputy governor

John Gieve warned on Wednesday there may yet be more turmoil to

come in financial markets and that money markets could feel a

bigger squeeze before the end of the year.

   According to the Telegraph newspaper's online edition,

Gieve, a member of the bank's Monetary Policy Committee, said:

"There is still a worry that we haven't yet seen the bottom.

Some markets are still very illiquid. As the year end

approaches, we may see some tightening in money markets."

   Gieve made the comment at a hedge fund conference, telling

his audience: "There still may be more bad news to come". 







《台灣金融分析》央行遏阻資金外流見成效,年底升息幅度端視經濟數據

 

 記者 高潔如

 路透台北11月21日電---台灣第三季國際收支逆差擴大至77億美元的歷史新高,分析師指出,為遏阻資金外流,台灣央行料延續升息步調,但年底是否擴大升息幅度,將視日內揭曉的物價及經濟成長情況而定.  經濟分析師表示,儘管第三季金融帳資金繼續淨流出,但在央行持續緩升匯率及利率下,台灣本地居民資金外流的情況已有所減緩,雙率政策已見成效;預計央行未來將持續升息,並在顧及經濟成長的情況下讓台幣緩慢升值. 



 "我們仍預估年底央行會再升息半碼,"永豐金控研究總處首席經濟學家黃蔭基表示,"央行已經很努力在守匯率了,不過它還要兼顧經濟成長率." 



 JP摩根經濟分析師吳向紅也表示,目前尚維持央行年底升息半碼(12.5個基點)的預測.她認為11月消費者物價指數(CPI)的增幅,將決定央行年底升息幅度是否擴大至一碼.

 台灣央行於9月底連續第13次升息,重貼現率調升半碼至3.25%,自2004年10月以來累計共升息1.875個百分點. 

 台灣10月CPI年增率猛升至5.34%,創13年新高,主要受颱風促使蔬菜價格飆升影響.但扣除蔬果,魚介及能源的核心物價年增率也達2.27%,是六年多高位,且分析師估計升幅還有可能擴大.11月消費物價數據將於12月5日公佈. 

 經濟成長率方面,台灣第二季國內生產總值(GDP)年增率達5.07%,創2005年第四季以來最大增幅.主計處並調高2007年經濟成長率至4.58%. 

 主計處將於周四(22日)公布第三季經濟成長率及各項預估值.據路透調查14位分析師預測,第三季經濟成長率料在4.9%. 



     **拉抬雙率** 



 為協助經濟抵禦次貸風暴的衝擊,美國聯邦儲備理事會(FED)9月及10月兩次降息.台灣方面,在面對通膨及資金外流壓力下,央行保持升息步調,第二季底的升息幅度更達25個基點,而不是往常的12.5個基點,備受市場矚目. 

 渣打銀行分析師符銘財表示,"央行積極縮減台幣和其他高利率貨幣的利差已有效果,第三季的居民對外投資淨流出情況已經放緩." 

 第三季國際收支數據顯示,台灣居民對外證券投資淨流出金額已較第二季減少約一半,自172億美元大減至86.6億. 

 但在匯率方面,央行拉升台幣的動作則有如雙面刃. 

 中信證券分析師方文妍指出,"台幣升值太多怕會影響出口商的毛利,升太少,又怕資金持續外流." 

 永豐金的黃蔭基表示,預料央行應會站穩拉升台幣的立場,但為減少出口商的匯兌損失,以及給予出口商避險的空間和時間,預料央行會守著緩步升值的方式,以減少對出口商的衝擊. 

 台幣兌美元<TWD=TP>周三收在32.348,自5月下旬觸及33.427的年內低點後累計升值3.3%,較去年底則僅升值0.8%,相對的日圓兌美元今年迄今則已升值9.3%.(完) 

 --集體採寫 李千儀;審校 許瑞宋

[每日摘要]20071120

很刺激的一天



上午股票開低走高，雜幣狂走, EUR up around 100 pips to record high at 1.4760 , usd/chf low at 1.11 , GBP rally also. 

Most because  FT news and market rumor. I don't think Feb will cut a surprising rate tonight , let's wait and see.



股票市場的動盪仍未結束，歐洲下午開盤一片混亂。UBS中間被暫停交易，後來又繼續交易，Swiss Re 也再下挫，金融業的問題

還是會繼續煩惱市場數天。



產油國近期對美金的憂慮不斷擴大，雖然最後仍然不會有什麼特別的動作，但是短期內作為賣美元的理由已經足過。



ECB's Quaden says today " ECB decided to take time to reflect to analyse forthcoming data from satrt of december "

                                                "  Inflation rising due to raw material rpices , especially oil"

                                                "  Weakening of dollar should not become excessive but is normal given U.S. slowdown"

                                                "  Asian currency level , especially Hincese , more abnormal than dollar decline"

                                               "   More transparency needed avoid subprime-like crises "

                                                "  Economic outlook more uncertain due to market turbulence, ECB job harder"

                                               "  Economic slowdown could be stronger than expected"





 總結Quaden 認為當前市況還是有可能更嚴重，但ECB會努力解決。匯率方面並未太過提及，但是對於人民幣的不滿仍見。





FT news :

<h2>Fed likely to give investors a surprise</h2>

By Krishna Guha in Washington

Published: November 19 2007 21:59 | Last updated: November 20 2007 01:21  

The US Federal Reserve will on Tuesday publish its first set of enhanced economic forecasts alongside the minutes of the last meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee, and the result may surprise some investors.

The new economic projections are likely to show that Fed policymakers expect the US economy will pull through an expected near-term rough patch and regain strength over the course of 2008, even though they see downside risks to that ­forecast.





 0839GMT - 海灣國家匯率重估預期愈演愈烈

 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 沙特阿拉伯報紙al-Riyadh援引波斯灣合作理事會(GCC)一位官員的話說,沙特可能正在不太情願地考慮進行1986年以來的首次裡亞爾匯率重估,以解決海灣鄰國對該地區釘住美元匯率制度的擔憂.[nCN0240691]

 "重估已是相當確定的事情了,特別是對沙特阿拉伯而言,卡塔爾也愈發可能這樣做."一倫敦的交易商表示,"他們還需要說服沙特,時間是關鍵.美元的跌勢令他們恐慌,如果美元不大幅反彈的話,重估恐怕不可避免."

[每日摘要]20071119

GBP , EUR , and CHF 都幾乎持平的過一天，雖然上午較為強勢，但是卻無法阻止倫敦客所擁進的大賣壓

GB rightmove housing price only up 7.9%YOY , Pre. 10.4%



EU's 雷貝舒講話一如往常，reflect economic fundmentals. "The ECB has no exchange rate target." "When taking monetary policy decisions the Governing Council of the ECB considers all parameters including exchange rates to the extent that they influence risks to price stability. In this respect. excessive exchange rate volatility is not welcome"





在20國集團(G20)財長再度呼籲中國加強人民幣匯率彈性之後,中國人民銀行行長周小川周日表示,其可能會考慮放寬人民幣波動區間.但他表示,是否擴大人民幣波動區間取決於全球經濟狀況,並且這並不是中國政府提高人民幣匯率彈性的惟一手段。周小川周一還稱,中國支持強勢美元,因其有助於全球經濟穩健髮展;中國的CPI呈現季節性上升,不需要過度頻繁地調整利率,但也不排除這種手段;將繼續提高準備金率以收緊流動性.與此同時,中國國務院總理溫家寶周一表示,在美元疲軟的情況下,中國在讓其快速增長的外匯儲備保值方面正在面臨巨大壓力他說,中國將逐步提高人民幣匯率的彈性,並逐步實現資本項目可自由兌換,中國將繼續努力減少貿易失衡



Opec leaders have commented that an increase in oil production would do little to lower prices, as they blame the higher cost of oil on the weak dollar, the currency in which crude is priced. The weaker dollar has been driving up oil prices as investors have been using the commodity as an alternative to holding dollars.

[匯市簡評] 年底新台幣走勢想法1103

上一篇寫台幣已經是六月時的事了，最近台幣又開始瘋狂升值，十月份又升值了0.5%，第四季才過了三分之一，台幣是否仍有行情呢？以下幾點是個人的一些觀察重點︰

1.        台幣第四季一向是傳統升值季節，尤其是從十一月到隔年年底，自2002到2006年，年年均是如此。

   

2.       通膨高漲，油價爬到90up，9月份消費者物價指數年增率3.01%，這個水準，以歐洲國家來看，就已經達到警戒標準。(以英國來說，若通膨達到3%，BOE總裁就必須寫公開信到議會解釋了)。單看進口物價更是高達7.98%(主計處資料)。全球性的通膨危機不但會使得升息循環持續下去，也將繼續升值以抵制些許輸入性通膨。

3.   回到一個大家很愛說的選舉因素，去年台幣收在32.596，2007年是美元落水年加上2008年的選舉，台幣再怎麼不濟也該升值。

4.   考量到現在的台美利差，年初出口商賣匯的話，預賣個一年期遠匯只能賣在31.6~31.7。等到現在年底了，再怎麼賣，都比這個價位好，各家外匯避險人員今年都應該過個好年。

5.   再來想想競爭的問題，我們幾個出要的出口競爭對手。韓圜、泰幣、新元，每一個都升翻了，台幣的幣值已經是相對十分弱勢，對出口業商家來說，並不會傷害多少競爭力。

如果是出口到歐洲的廠商更是應該笑呵呵，台幣今年對歐元可是一路貶貶貶到底。

6.   台幣一向很難做技術分析，因為人為掌控的成份太大，但硬要說的話，台幣升值有幾個特性︰(1)時間短又急，會在兩到三週內就完成，年底那一段會長一點。(2)中間會有一段時間回貶或盤整以讓出口商能夠跑掉。

7.   如果這一波升值幅度至少跟五六月份那一波一樣的話，那滿足點會在32.25左右，但是台幣一向不鳥那些的，一切的價位都在央行老伯伯的心中。不過越接近年底，我對美金就越沒有信心。

 

以上只做一些現象敘述及想法，並不是對匯市做預測唷，做任何交易與投資，請加入自己的想法及判斷！ 

         







      <以下是路透社11/2新聞>路透台北11月2日電---台幣兌美元<TWD=TP>周五收報平盤,逆轉盤中跌勢.匯銀人士指出,美股重挫,台股暴跌逾300點,使得連日來站在台幣買盤的多方,今日換邊改站美元買方,不過在美國非農就業數據前公佈前夕,追價謹慎.而尾盤則是在央行的干預下,終場收在平盤。



    他們指出,雖然台股大跌,外資大幅賣超,不過並未見到外資大舉匯出的跡象,反而是在美元區間高檔32.430-450附近,出口商伺機結匯意願頗強;而在進口物價高漲,通膨風險蠢動下,料是央行傾向極力維繫台幣升值格局的主因。一金控商銀交易人士說,"盤中看股市,收盤看央行。



    對於下周走勢,他們指出,今晚美國公佈的非農就業報告極為關鍵,若透露出美國經濟疲態,衝擊美股持續大幅回檔,且信貸市場的風暴再度復燃,則外資從台灣"提錢"救火、大舉匯出的可能性,便可能讓台幣升值力道受到考驗.