[每日摘要]20071128

美元絕地大反攻？



昨天才提到對喊漲卻不漲的歐元感到遲疑

今日他就跌給你看，

特里謝帶著大批人馬去中國看來有些進展

下午三點左右，美元兌 歐元 英鎊 及瑞朗 幾乎完全翻盤

連帶著USD/JPY 也重回到109 價位

目前看不到歐洲政府進場干預的味道

但是後續的效應倒是值得觀察。



溫家寶說要讓人民幣更具彈性，及將更多由市場決定

如果真的做到的話，那就必須升值更加加速

但是要改善EUR/CNY的過度升值

那overvalue的歐元必須要先修正才行

也就是問題終將回到美元本身

要立刻修正美元的超賣  短期內是有難度的

金融市場應該是會慢慢穩定

房市反正已經爛到谷底 要有再爛的數字好像也很難

所以接下來就是慢慢恢復信心的時間問題了



台幣今天一反連日升值的狀態，

終於以貶值作收

但不是央行就此放手  在最後這樣子的市場狀態下

最後收貶但只是小貶也還在老大哥可以接受的範圍內

不需要太過作文章...



聽到中國賣了很多EUR/USD 

難道是政策配合賣的嗎？

先打上一個大大的問號吧



==================================================

News



    BEIJING, Nov 28 (Reuters) - Following are highlights of

comments made by Eurogroup Chairman Jean-Claude Juncker, European

Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet and European Monetary

Affairs Commissioner Joaquin Almunia in Beijing on Wednesday.

   They were speaking at a news conference after two days of

talks with senior Chinese government and central bank officials

on exchange rates and trade issues.

   

   (* denotes new comments)

   

   EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK PRESIDENT JEAN-CLAUDE TRICHET:

   The ECB and the People's Bank of China will immediately set

up a working group on currency issues.

   He said the EU appreciated Beijing's resolute drive towards

making the economy driven more "by modern themes" and to have

domestic consumption more as a driver of growth.

   "We would certainly think that as part of the overall

orientations that have been taken, part of it would be

accelerating the appreciation of the currency in particular

against the euro. It would be good both for the Chinese interests

and sustainable global prosperity."

   "We fully respect the sovereign decisions of the Chinese

authority."

   "We heard this idea that going in the direction that we are

suggesting would perhaps be the attitude of the Chinese

authorities, but I wouldn't say anything more on that."

   "We were told that this was something which would be

examined."

   

   EUROGROUP CHAIRMAN JEAN-CLAUDE JUNCKER:

   "We didn't come to China with immediate expectations."

    

   On trade:

   "Our main concern is the persistence of the global

imbalances."

   Because China is the EU's top trade partner, the fact that

the yuan is depreciating against the euro and rising against the

dollar is a problem and could lead to protectionist tensions in

Europe.

   "We have to correct this obvious imbalance."

   

   On currencies:

 *  "We do share with our Chinese friends a common diagnosis

that the Chinese currency should appreciate in a gradual but

sped-up way."

 * "We agreed to have a continual dialogue between China and the

euro area in the next coming period."

   

   EUROPEAN MONETARY AFFAIRS COMMISSIONER JOAQUIN ALMUNIA:

He said China needs "to introduce more flexibility in the

exchange rate of the yuan".

   Beijing should not focus only on the relationship between the

yuan and the dollar. "They have promised us to think about these

divergences of the exchange rate." 







17:27 28Nov07 RTRS-中國將繼續逐步改善人民幣匯率機制--總理溫家寶

17:30 28Nov07 RTRS-中國總理溫家寶稱人民幣匯率將更多地由市場力量決定

17:32 28Nov07 RTRS-中國將令人民幣匯率波幅更具彈性,以著眼于資本項目可兌換--總理溫家寶

17:48 28Nov07 RTRS-〔人民幣匯率〕匯率將更多由市場力量決定,波幅更具彈性--中國總理

 --翻譯 曾祥進; 審校 張喜良 





17:54 28Nov07 RTRS-〔瑞士利率〕央行不會機械地對通膨預期做出反應--央行總裁何斯

  路透瑞士弗裡堡11月28日電---瑞士央行總裁何斯(Jean-Pierre Roth)周三表示,央行不會機械地對通膨預期做出反應,董事會的判斷對其利率決定起著重要作用.

 瑞士央行官員暗示,央行在做出利率決定之前仍需觀望,因信貸危機令經濟增長面臨的風險,以及油價上漲和瑞郎走軟對物價穩定的威脅,令其左右為難.

 何斯說,瑞郎在央行的利率決策過程中曾被視為可能影響通膨的因素之一.

 "在做出利率決策時,央行不會瞄準匯率,無論以明確或隱含的方式,"何斯說.

 不過他也表示,瑞郎的走勢是給央行通膨預期帶來不確定性的一個重要因素.(完)

 欲瀏覽瑞士利率的相關報導,請點選[INT-CMN-CH]

 --翻譯 烏雲高娃;審校 徐文焰 





08:12 28Nov07 RTRS-〔英國利率〕央行委員森坦斯稱形勢複雜,決定貨幣政策並不容易

  路透倫敦11月27日電---英國央行貨幣政策委員會(MPC)委員森坦斯周二表示,該央行不得不同時考量通膨壓力上升的影響,以及金融市場動蕩導致經濟放緩的可能性. 

  森坦斯是貨幣政策委員會中對抗通膨立場更強硬的委員之一.他稱對油價高漲的憂慮較去年初更甚,部分因為其他初級商品及食品價格亦大漲. 

  但同時還要兼顧金融市場的持續動蕩,因後者加之過去一年中的五次升息,可能打壓經濟成長. 

  他稱,貨幣政策委員會將密切關注經濟數據,但沒有暗示最快下周就降息.多數分析師預計明年初將降息. 

  森坦斯稱,"要判斷出恰當的貨幣政策反應並不容易." 

  他稱,貨幣政策委員會將密切關注"金融市場及信貸狀況對全球其他主要經濟體,尤其是對歐美的影響." 

  森坦斯注意到近幾年油價的動蕩走勢,但稱最近這輪升向每桶100美元的走勢,可能更成問題. 

  他稱,"對於油價進一步動蕩的影響,我們可能不那麼樂觀了,動蕩情況本身已經更加嚴峻.另外,我們不僅看到油價急劇上漲,且初級商品價格面臨更為普遍的上檔壓力...並且近期食品價格大幅上漲."

  森坦斯預計房價漲幅將進一步放緩,因各銀行已抑制風險較高的貸款,但他指出,目前預計房價徹底下跌還為時尚早.(完) 



  --翻譯 于春紅;審校 朱淑珍