[每日摘要]20071123

以為很平靜 結果........



晨報時，很多人都以為今天會是個十分平淡的一天，感恩節後加上日本的假日，應該是個輕鬆的一天才是。但是很多事情最後並非是事前想得這麼簡單。

很多時候，行情都在最鬆懈時候來臨，市場最清淡容易推動是個原因 ，技術分析和選擇權的廣泛在外匯上利用也絕對是個幕後推手。這幾年常常可以看到這種例子，尤其是聖誔節這種全世界狂歡的日子，竟然往往都是狂昇狂跌的日子。



還是從歐洲三兄弟開始一段刺激的行程，Usd/Chf 在 1.1 的選擇權價觸級後，升！連帶著歐元和英鎊也是，歐元盤中創下1.4950新高，瑞朗 1.0890也突破。看來美元是笈笈可危，但之前有提到歐元在越高點，政治及財政壓力將蜂擁而至，所以交易員將格外提高警覺。所以當ECB's Ordonez認為歐元區經濟將衰退的比預期來得快，此話一出，引發大量停損，當然還有其它評論值得玩味，但是要讓市場反轉，這一句話就夠了。



英國的貨幣市場利率還是有緊俏，而且這兩天有加緊上揚的感覺，是不是還有什麼金融機構在急著從市場上抓錢，值得後續觀察。



沒有把日元的圖附上，不過大致上是相同的走勢，只是日元同時還帶著unwind carry trade的角色在，目前金融市場還沒有走入穩定，反彈就不如歐洲三兄弟大囉。



下圖由左至右 依序是歐元 英鎊 瑞朗(瑞朗向下即代表升值~倒過來看 走勢都是一樣。









==========



News



Lomax 是BOE中屬於較鴿派的一員，但上次利率決定，意外的投下onhold，但是今天的言論讓大家認為他下次會投Cut rate



BOE's Lomax,

* MPC faces tough period regarding rate decisions

* Oil prices key in decision to keep rates at 5.75%

* Oil prices seen rising even higher

* Monetary policy may be on the restrictive side, impact of financial

turmoil hard to call

* Further tightening of credit conditions expected

* Consumer spending, investment seen slowing

* UK economic growth seen slowing, inflation could rise

* Ther are always risks in signalling policy ease when energy prices

rising

* Risk turmoil will spill over into asset, property markets and hurt

confidence

* MPC faces trickey period balancing risk of sharp slowdown vs

inflation

* We shoudl respond quickly to economic conditions, but still unclear

how much economy will slo



Numerous financial institutions have increased their calls for cuts by

the BOE in 2008. Comments such as these by Lomax will only compounde

these expectati



歐元1.50相信會是歐洲財政官員及出口商的容忍臨界點，雖然實質進場干預的機率還是不大，畢竟日元最近也有跟著升值，立足點就沒那麼穩。但是相信在逼人民幣加速升值未果下，回頭推美元回升的話題應該將開始在市場上流傳。



17:14 23Nov07 RTRS-ECB'S ORDONEZ SAYS ECB READY TO ACT TO PREVENT SECOND ROUND INFLATION RISKS

17:17 23Nov07 RTRS-ECB'S ORDONEZ SAYS DISORDERLY CURRENCY ADJUSTMENTS NEGATIVE

17:19 23Nov07 RTRS-RPT-ECB'S ORDONEZ SAYS SHARP FALL IN DOLLAR NOT POSITIVE FOR U.S. ECONOMY

17:21 23Nov07 RTRS-ORDONEZ SAYS ECB HAS INSUFFICIENT DATA TO SAY IF INFLATION EXPECTATIONS UNANCHORED FROM TARGET

17:42 23Nov07 RTRS-ECB's Ordonez says abrupt dollar fall bad for US



18:17 23Nov07 RTRS-ECB'S TRICHET SAYS NOTES US AUTHORITIES HAVE SAID STRONG DOLLAR IN US INTERESTS

18:17 23Nov07 RTRS-TRICHET SAYS NOTES JAPANESE AUTHORITIES SAY FX SHOULD REFLECT FUNDAMENTALS

18:18 23Nov07 RTRS-TRICHET SAYS MARKETS SHOULD RECOGNISE IMPROVED STRENGTH OF JAPANESE ECONOMY

18:19 23Nov07 RTRS-ECB'S TRICHET SAYS DOES NOT WELCOME BRUTAL CURRENCY MOVEMENTS

18:19 23Nov07 RTRS-TRICHET SAYS STICKS TO G7 STATEMENT ON CURRENCIES