[每日摘要]各國央行談話趨漸保守 20080116

昨天經濟數字是不好的
從UK RICS exp -45% Act -49% (1992 年以來新低)
GE ZEW exp 59 Act 56.5
到美國的零售數字 exp 0% Act -0.4%
Retail less Autos exp -0.1% Act -0.4%
通常因為汽車業的波動性很大 拿到汽車業的數字就比較重要...
最近風吹草動很多
而且金融環境又開始不穩定
連許多官員的談話都開始漸漸轉向
不過都是一些比較小的國家或是官員開始
要嚴格注意是否會引發整體美元弱勢的動盪
目前心態還是以偏空美元做操作，
但是不可太過貪心

22:44 15Jan08 RTRS-Bank of Italy-ECB worried on growth, not just CPI
ROME, Jan 15 (Reuters) - The European Central Bank is
worried about growth prospects, the Bank of Italy said on
Tuesday, adding that the euro zone growth outlook has worsened
sharply and may deteriorate faster than expected.
In its quarterly economic outlook the BOI gave a downbeat
assessment of euro zone and Italian growth prospects and said
world demand may slow this year, rather than rise slightly as
the ECB had forecast just one month ago.
At the ECB, "attention to inflation risks in a context of
increasingly sustained credit growth, is accompanied by worry
about the persistent uncertainties about the evolution of
financial tensions and the relative impact on the real economy,"
the Bank of Italy said.
It warned of a "concrete risk that credit conditions for
firms and families may undergo a significant tightening".


05:03 16Jan08 RTRS-UPDATE 1-SNB says market tensions ease but growth risks up
(Adds quotes, combines stories)
By Sven Egenter
FREIBURG, Germany, Jan 15 (Reuters) - Tensions in money
markets are easing but the markets are not back to normal yet
and the real economy is likely to be hit, Swiss National Bank
board member Thomas Jordan said on Tuesday.
Risks to growth in the Swiss economy as well as risks to
price stability have increased since the SNB last decided on
interest rates in December but the central bank still had no
monetary policy bias, Jordan said.
...中略
But the central banker warned against sounding the
all-clear signal yet. "We see a trend towards an easing of
tensions but the situation is not back to where it was in the
first half of 2007," Jordan said.
Central banks have offered ample liquidity since the crisis
broke in August as banks stopped lending to each other for fear
of being exposed to the problems in the U.S. subprime mortgage
market.
Jordan said the credit crisis was likely to spill over to
other parts of the economy.
"It would be naive to assume that a credit crisis of such a
size will pass without an impact," Jordan said.
While the U.S. economy was likely to suffer most, Europe
still looked robust -- though some damage was inevitable.
Growth in Switzerland was also likely to slow.
When the SNB kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged at
2.75 percent in December, the central bank pointed to the large
uncertainties from the credit crisis.
Jordan said that the risks for the Swiss economy had
increased since the bank's December meeting.
"We still think that we will have a robust development,"
Jordan said. "But the risks have increased again due to the
developments in the United States."
The SNB so far forecasts the growth rate to fall to
approximately 2 percent this year from some 2.5 percent in
2007. "The risks for our growth forecast have increased,"
Jordan said.
At the same time, the inflation outlook had deteriorated.
"Inflation risks have increased somewhat," Jordan said.
"Inflation will rise over our threshold of 2 percent as we have
forecast. But the development of commodity, oil and food prices
point to rather rising risks," he said.
Inflation has hit the highest in over 12 years with an
annual rate of 2 percent in December but the SNB said in
December it expected inflation to ease after peaking in the
first half of 2008.
"For monetary policy it is important that inflation starts
to ease once the economy starts to soften," Jordan said.
Stagflation -- the combination of persisting high inflation
and low growth -- was not part of the SNB's main scenario yet,
he said.
The recent rise in the Swiss franc helped to keep the
potential of imported inflation in check .
"For us it was always important that the Swiss franc does
not weaken permanently against the euro," Jordan said.
"We don't see that danger at the moment. The franc has
risen from 1.68 per euro towards 1.61," he said.
Jordan said that the SNB had no reason to change its
monetary policy stance at the moment.
When asked if the SNB had a bias at the moment, Jordan
said: "As for today, no."
The SNB has described its monetary stance as a
"wait-and-see-mode" to gain time to assess the full impact of
the credit crisis.
(Editing by James Dalgleish)