[每日摘要] 20080123

今天幾個重要訊息
1.Fed 在2008/01/22 緊急降息3碼到3.5%，等於承認經濟衰退已經是不可否認的事實，且需要更重的藥來服用。上一次緊急會議而降息是在01年911

2.BOE's King 也發表談話，摘重點如下
(1). 經濟展望今年面臨了挑戰
(2).房市及消費的衰退使得成長降低，今年必須面臨比預期還高的通膨及低成長的情勢
(3).因為通膨因素，BOE的降息循環將不如FED積極
言論中某些程度暗示了下一次的降息，下次BOE開會在2/7

3.股市回升，但台股仍疲。恆生爆走10.7%，大多數亞洲股市均回升，短期的情勢應趨於穩定

4.Market rumour talks ECB will cut 25bps before market open. 但事後只見Trichet 稍微評論了近期市場波動，並未討論到貨幣政策，對於Price expectation 仍是央行主要目標再度重申。

5.ECB Webber said should not overdramatise share moves
recession and stagflation ared not an issue in Germeny
=> 歐洲區這兒仍未鬆口，從昨天的財長言論到今天部份官員談話，都認為市場波動是一時，且美國的衰退和歐洲區不應作相對應的聯結。 (這點我個人是比較質疑的)

6.BOE minutes: 8-1 for hold , better than market expected
Housing market had weakened further , Xmas retail sales pattern seems softer but still unclear
Stg fall putting upward pressure on inflatio, markets pricing significant risk of further fall
Most MPC thought consecutive rate cuts would suggest policy focus on demand, ont inflation
Downside risk to growth had increasde but upside risk to inflation also up since Nov forecasts.

7.GE GDP (Q4) exp 0.5% QoQ Act 0.6%QoQ



King 的談話
http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/economics/article3234961.ece

摘重點
The Bank of England sounded a stark warning last night that the economy faced its most testing period for a decade and that the persistent danger of inflation left it boxed-in over potential action to stave off a severe downturn.
In a grim assessment of the conflicting economic pressures buffeting Britain, Mervyn King, the Bank’s Governor, said that the country could endure a “possibly quite sharp” slowdown this year as a weakening housing market and consumer spending continued to limit growth.
He gave warning that the Bank was hamstrung in its ability to counter the slowdown because soaring food and energy costs were putting pressure on inflation.
“To put it bluntly, this year we are probably facing a period of above-target inflation and a marked slowing in growth,” Mr King said. “You might think we have now entered a not-so-good period
........中略
However, his tough stance on inflationary risks dampened prospects for aggressive cuts this year and quashed hopes that the Bank might follow the dramatic cut in interest rates made by the US Federal Reserve.
Mr King said that inflation was being fuelled by the 10 per cent drop in the value of the pound since August, boosting import bills. “2008 is likely to see higher energy prices, higher food prices and, with a lower exchange rate, higher import prices, pushing inflation above 2 per cent,” he said.
This meant that the Bank faced “a difficult balancing act in the course of 2008”, but Mr King said that the big adjustments taking place in the economy and credit markets were necessary and “not a process that we should try to reverse "