[每日摘要] 殺聲震天 20080122

08年1月22日 會是個值得紀念一天
金融市場交易主軸都放股市
股市全面性重挫
TWII -6.51% N225 -5.65%
KS11 -4.43% HSI -8.65%
BSESN -7.97%

亞洲貨幣除日元外，也同步重挫 台幣盤中跌至32.500 最後在央行的干預外
勉強將貶幅控制在1角內，收32.439
韓圜兌美元也貶到兩年來新低
總而言之 "一片愁雲慘霧"...

現在再來回味一下年初寫下的文章....揮別2007 走向2008
經濟議題還是不脫離De-couple 及Re-couple上...
目前來看還是美國將大家拖下水的機率較大，
回顧之前幾次經濟事件..
亞洲金融危機 美國還是可以挺住
但是科技泡沫時 卻還是可以蔓延全球 來看，
美國感冒 全球打噴涕的老大哥情形還是會持續

這種情勢對美元是有利的，Usd-smile 的理論還是成立
只要美國經濟不佳，爛到極點 美元就有轉強的機會

但是回到市場瘋狂砍殺本身
還是屬於不理性行為，
不理性的砍殺不一定會馬上反彈，
有時候只是將市場的波動性再增加，
方向有時候還是正確的
這種由07年的"Greed" 轉向至08年的"Fear" 所引發的市場波動
正好是市場投資人及交易員需要去適應的

日本央行並未調整利率，BOJ總裁福井提到升息立場不變，
但是經濟成長較為疲弱的語調就頗令人意外，
但是日元今日還是除了美元外的最大贏家。
風險態度的修正，仍然幫助了 日元升值
反觀AUD/JPY EUR/JPY GBP/JPY 都大幅回落 甚至低於去年8月時的水準..

月底Fed開會的戲碼重要性越來越高
目前百分百預期降二碼 降三碼機率日益增加
以現在的市場渴望度來看，降三碼也無法救急
說不定還正好證實了衰退的事實.....

最近歐元區正好財長會議 面對如此市場動盪 來看看他們怎麼說
基本上他們還是對經濟前景蠻有信心，實在令人好奇的
但是歐元無可避免的還是有沉重的壓力...

EUROGROUP CHAIRMAN JEAN-CLAUDE JUNCKER
On possible reaction to turmoil:
"When financial markets act irrationally, and are driven by
herd behaviour, when stock markets demonstrate short-termism,
there is no reason for finance ministers to do the same."
"Europe and the euro zone are overall significantly better
positioned than our U.S. friends, our fundamental data are
better, the economic prospects are better."
Asked how big is the risk of a global finanncial collapse:
"I don't see the risk."

EUROPEAN MONETARY AFFAIRS COMMISSIONER JOAQUIN ALMUNIA
Asked if the world was heading for a recession:
"It's not about global recession, it's about a risk of a
U.S. recession, which has created this situation on the markets.
The question is how the U.S. will avoid recession. The U.S.
authorities are announcing some measures. The executive branch
has announced a fiscal stimulus. Fed President (Ben) Bernanke
has announced he will probably announce some decisions. I hope
they will be able to avoid recession and calm will return to the
markets."

DUTCH FINANCE MINISTER WOUTER BOS
Asked whether there is a risk of recession in Europe:
"No... our fundamentals are strong and unemployment is at
its lowest level."

SPANISH ECONOMY MINISTER PEDRO SOLBES
"Today it's important to see how Wall Street opens, to see
the reaction. It is true the situation is difficult, everyone is
concerned. But the U.S. and Europe are different, the starting
point of the economies in the U.S. and Europe is different.
"Europe and Spain are prepared to face this situation,
thanks to stability reached in budget terms."

FRENCH ECONOMY MINISTER CHRISTINE LAGARDE
"If growth should slow significantly in the euro zone, the
ECB would take it into account in its monetary policy, I
suppose.
"Our solid European fundamentals allow us to expect
significantly stronger growth in Europe compared to the likely
U.S. growth."
((Brussels newsroom +32 2 287 6841, fax +32 2 230 5573))
Keywords: ECOFIN/