[金融要聞] WSJ文章 西班牙將步入衰退20080708

這篇記來留底

歐洲經濟體漸漸衰退也不是新聞了

西班牙是其中比較弱的，所以壞消息也不足為奇

但還是可以看一下歐洲經濟就竟會到多惡劣的地步

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB121547707526434303.html?mod=2_1577_topbox

MADRID -- The Spanish economy could face recession in the second half, possibly depriving the euro zone of a principal engine for job creation and economic growth.

Gross domestic product has increased at average annual rate of 3.75% for the last ten years in Spain. But the implosion of a decade-long housing boom seems to be bringing the rest of the Spanish economy down with it.

In 2006, Spain built more than 700,000 houses -- more than France, Germany and the U.K. combined -- and investment in housing accounted for nearly 10% of gross domestic product, more than twice the euro-zone average.

Economists expect Spain to build fewer than 300,000 houses this year as the industry tries to digest accumulated debt alongside difficult financing conditions in the aftermath of the U.S. subprime-mortgage crisis.

Spain, like the rest of the euro zone, is saddled with soaring oil prices, strong inflationary pressures and, after the European Central Bank raised rates last week, tighter monetary policy. And like the U.K. and Ireland, Spain feels the added pressure of tumbling home values.

Rapidly rising unemployment together with climbing inflation is undermining consumer confidence and purchasing power. Spanish retail sales fell 5.3% in May, while car sales dropped 31% in June. Spain's unemployment rate edged up to 9.9% in May, the highest in the euro zone, according to the European Union statistics agency, Eurostat.

"There's a high likelihood the [Spanish] economy could be in recession at the end of the year," Fernando Eguidazu, vice chairman of the Circulo de Empresarios business association told journalists Monday.

The group urged the government to take action to help the economy rebound quickly.

Spain has launched a fiscal-stimulus plan, but business leaders say the country needs further labor-market overhauls and must open key sectors of its economy like retail and energy to further competition.

"The risk is that we could go into a long period of stagnation," said Mr. Eguidazu.

Spanish GDP slumped to a 2.7% annual growth rate in the first quarter, from 3.5% in the fourth quarter. Quarterly growth fell to 0.3% from 0.8%.

Bank of America's chief European economist, Holger Schmieding, said the likely stagnation or contraction of Spain's economy in the second half alone would shave nearly 0.1 percentage point off euro-zone quarterly growth. He forecasts quarterly growth of 0.2% for the euro zone in the third and fourth quarters.

Spain owes much of the growth of previous years to overhauls carried out to prepare the country for euro membership in 1999. It deregulated its labor market and reduced public-sector spending, putting it in a strong position to benefit from historically low interest rates. Large immigration inflows provided an abundance of low-cost labor and boosted consumption.

The housing boom peaked last year when prices reached three times their 1997 levels and a series of European Central Bank interest-rate increases made financing more expensive. The outbreak of the U.S. subprime-mortgage crisis last summer precipitated a correction by making financing even more expensive for Spanish home builders.

Jose Luis Echevarria, head of Venesa, a small Madrid construction company, said banks that used to lend to him at one-quarter percentage point over the Euribor reference lending rate are now charging Euribor plus one point and requiring additional guarantees, such as proof of advance sales.

According to recent government data, Spanish home-sales transactions fell by 32% in the first quarter from a year earlier, new housing permits dropped 41% in April and nearly 100,000 construction jobs were lost in the first half.